Summary：**PH must prepare now for super El Niño – The Manila Times***Introduction* Meteorologists are warni

**PH must prepare now for super El Niño – The Manila Times**

*Introduction*
Meteorologists are warning that the upcoming El Niño episode could reach “super” intensity, threatening to exacerbate drought, heat stress and water scarcity across the Philippine archipelago. With the Pacific Ocean already showing anomalously warm sea‑surface temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a greater than 70 % chance that the phenomenon will peak between late 2024 and early 2025, potentially surpassing the strength of the 2015‑16 event. Government agencies, farmers’ groups and urban planners are being urged to move beyond routine monitoring and activate concrete preparedness measures before the climate anomaly fully unfolds.

*Key Developments*
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued an advisory on September 12 noting that the Niño‑3.4 index has risen to +1.8 °C, a threshold associated with strong El Niño conditions. In response, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has begun distributing drought‑tolerant seed varieties to provinces in Luzon and Visayas, while the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is accelerating the rehabilitation of small‑scale irrigation systems in the Cagayan Valley. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) convened a multi‑agency workshop on September 18 to draft contingency plans for water rationing, power load‑shedding and health‑service surges linked to prolonged high temperatures.

*Industry Analysis*
Analysts from the University of the Philippines’ Climate Change Institute estimate that a super El Niño could cut palay yields by up to 20 % in rain‑fed areas, translating to a potential loss of PHP 45 billion in agricultural output. The energy sector faces similar risks; reduced reservoir levels may diminish hydroelectric generation, forcing greater reliance on costly fossil‑fuel plants and pushing electricity prices upward. Conversely, the construction and water‑treatment industries could see a short‑term boost as contracts for desalination units and rain‑water harvesting systems are fast‑tracked. Experts caution, however, that reactive spending without integrated planning may lead to maladaptation, such as over‑extraction of groundwater that worsens long‑